Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 15¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$2.4K
$2.2K
1¢ → 15¢
+1461% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
1951h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CoffeeDespiserCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $135.7 | $2.3K | +$2.1K | 50% 870-861 (1731) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $3.16 | $54.32 | +$51.16 | 38% 2939-4714 (7653) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $0.93 | $41.13 | +$36.86 | 57% 17353-12958 (30311) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $11.59 | $11.59 | +$10.39 | 7% 14-192 (206) |
CoffeeDespiserCTRInvested
$135.7
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
50%
870-861 (1731)
Invested
$3.16
Value
$54.32
PnL
+$51.16
Record
38%
2939-4714 (7653)
Invested
$0.93
Value
$41.13
PnL
+$36.86
Record
57%
17353-12958 (30311)
Invested
$11.59
Value
$11.59
PnL
+$10.39
Record
7%
14-192 (206)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.