Consensus PnL -$26K · win rate 52% (837–786, n=1623) · was PM monthly #436 · holds 61 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-25.5K
Record
837W / 786L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 1623 settled
Batting Avg
72.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1697
Source
PM monthly #436
Record (90 d)
172/355 · 48%
Trades
1,042
Markets
1,813
Volume
$6.6M
Top consensus positions
61 in listed consensus markets · 32 of 61 on the consensus side (52%)- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $2.9K · now 57¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (39% of 66)
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $2.9K · now 72¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (75% of 33)
- Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes $2.5K · now 44¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes $2.3K · now 15¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Yes $2.0K · now 47¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes $607 · now 4¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $389 · now 16¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $366 · now 4¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,693 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 50¢- MLB
+6 pts
side won 56% of 109 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +1%
- College Basketball
+11 pts
side won 57% of 30 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +14%
- NHL
+3 pts
side won 54% of 72 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 52% of 665 at an average 53¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 11% of 349)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 43% of 502)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 58% of 462)
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 86% of 380)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.