Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $244 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$244.32
$100
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $188.79 | $243.47 | +$56.77 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $2.83 | $0.66 | +$3.43 | 39% 10144-15757 (25901) |
CR crckrCTR | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $136.13 | $0.17 | +$68.62 | 31% 739-1613 (2352) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $49.82 | $0.01 | -$28.82 | 51% 2575-2507 (5082) |
Invested
$188.79
Value
$243.47
PnL
+$56.77
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$2.83
Value
$0.66
PnL
+$3.43
Record
39%
10144-15757 (25901)
Invested
$136.13
Value
$0.17
PnL
+$68.62
Record
31%
739-1613 (2352)
Invested
$49.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$28.82
Record
51%
2575-2507 (5082)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.