Will Slovakia win 2026-27 Nations League Group C3?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$233.24

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 99.3¢

+47% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,834

Combined PnL+$249.25

No2 traders

Total Value$0.32

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$16.01

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Yes	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$119.88	65% 957-513 (1470)
extractive-manatee	Yesavg 46.6¢	$301	$149.87	+$79.55	34% 602-1160 (1762)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 99.2¢	$281.69	$89.34	-$0.82	41% 6394-9370 (15764)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 99.2¢	$17	$16.87	+$0	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$1.99	$4.96	+$50.63	31% 2678-6002 (8680)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$15.87	$0.28	-$15.6	47% 1713-1907 (3620)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.46	$0.04	-$0.42	49% 8980-9510 (18490)

ndb1

Yes

Invested

$2,551.96

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$119.88

Record

65%

957-513 (1470)

extractive-manatee

Yes

Invested

$301

Value

$149.87

PnL

+$79.55

Record

34%

602-1160 (1762)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$281.69

Value

$89.34

PnL

-$0.82

Record

41%

6394-9370 (15764)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$17

Value

$16.87

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$50.63

Record

31%

2678-6002 (8680)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$15.87

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$15.6

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.42

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.