Will Slovakia win 2026-27 Nations League Group C3?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$2.7K
$233.17
92.3¢ → 99.3¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 94.8¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$119.88 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 47.8¢ | $143.86 | $149.87 | +$114 | 34% 661-1265 (1926) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 99.2¢ | $16.87 | $16.87 | +$0 | 58% 21162-15379 (36541) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.1¢ | $1.11 | $0.4 | -$0.71 | 34% 19149-36800 (55949) |
Invested
$2,432.07
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$119.88
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
extractive-manateeInvested
$143.86
Value
$149.87
PnL
+$114
Record
34%
661-1265 (1926)
Invested
$16.87
Value
$16.87
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
21162-15379 (36541)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$0.71
Record
34%
19149-36800 (55949)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.