Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.7K
-$205.82
90.3¢ → 82¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 90.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$164.78 | 56% 15522-12135 (27657) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 88.4¢ | $295.5 | $288.7 | -$3.85 | 17% 402-2020 (2422) |
AV aviato | Noavg 95¢ | $191.41 | $165.21 | -$31.13 | 84% 2454-456 (2910) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 88.6¢ | $58.8 | $54.42 | -$6.07 | 24% 667-2096 (2763) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.