Consensus PnL $204K · win rate 85% (1878–321, n=2199) · PM monthly #808 · holds 47 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$204.3K
Record
1878W / 321L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 2199 settled
Batting Avg
72.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#337
Source
PM monthly #808 + pinned
Trades
60,668
Markets
3,153
Volume
$25.6M
Top consensus positions
47 in listed consensus markets · 46 of 47 on the consensus side (98%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $14K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $14K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $12K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
- Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?No $11K · now 94¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $5.9K · now 72¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes $1.8K · now 90¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?No $1.5K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
Specialties
2,584 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 86¢- Entertainment
+3 pts
side won 88% of 808 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 93% of 220 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +1%
- Weather
+4 pts
side won 93% of 46 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 92% of 423 at an average 93¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 8% of 253)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 29% of 28)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 66% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 87%(won 98% of 2259)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.