Will the Anaheim Ducks record 80+ points?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 78¢ · $6K held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$5.8K
$34.94
78.9¢ → 77.8¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 79.1¢ | $5.5K | $4.2K | -$73.48 | 34% 602-1158 (1760) |
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Noavg 20.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.5K | +$86.85 | 52% 6012-5617 (11629) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $36.19 | $49.4 | +$13.21 | 55% 5066-4137 (9203) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $43.2 | $46.65 | +$3.45 | 65% 956-504 (1460) |
AU auros2<$100 | Yesavg 61.4¢ | $18.42 | $23.33 | +$4.91 | — 4-0 (4) |
extractive-manateeInvested
$5,533.14
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$73.48
Record
34%
602-1158 (1760)
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$1,034.55
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$86.85
Record
52%
6012-5617 (11629)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$36.19
Value
$49.4
PnL
+$13.21
Record
55%
5066-4137 (9203)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$46.65
PnL
+$3.45
Record
65%
956-504 (1460)
Invested
$18.42
Value
$23.33
PnL
+$4.91
Record
—
4-0 (4)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.