Consensus PnL $859K · win rate 52% (2580–2394, n=4974) · PM monthly #102 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$858.9K
Record
2580W / 2394L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 4974 settled
Batting Avg
59.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1605
Source
PM monthly #102 + pinned
Trades
335,248
Markets
9,181
Volume
$107.3M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $387K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $300K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $65K · now 84¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $57K · now 96¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No $28K · now 92¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (64% of 34)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No $26K · now 96¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $26K · now 93¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (76% of 25)
- Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $3.2K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
Specialties
3,766 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 59¢- Esports
+32 pts
side won 85% of 906 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +20%
- NHL
+34 pts
side won 86% of 140 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +29%
- College Basketball
+42 pts
side won 93% of 27 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +48%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 24% of 870)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 80% of 659)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 90% of 611)
- 70¢ and up: 43%(won 98% of 1626)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.