Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Bills win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 39¢ · $89 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$89.23

Combined PnL

$27.86

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$55.83

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$20.98

Yes2 traders

Total Value$33.29

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$6.88

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 14.3¢	$13.6	$36.58	+$22.98	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
ND ndb1<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$20.57	$27.21	+$6.64	64% 1050-593 (1643)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$20	$19.25	-$2	52% 6135-5765 (11900)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$5.83	$6.08	+$0.25	68% 740-356 (1096)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$13.6

Value

$36.58

PnL

+$22.98

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

ndb1<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.57

Value

$27.21

PnL

+$6.64

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.25

PnL

-$2

Record

52%

6135-5765 (11900)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.83

Value

$6.08

PnL

+$0.25

Record

68%

740-356 (1096)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.