Consensus PnL -$4.8K · win rate 44% (4553–5712, n=10265) · PM monthly #479 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-4.8K
Record
4553W / 5712L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 10265 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2219
Source
PM monthly #479
Record (90 d)
3128/6415 · 49%
Trades
9,547
Markets
21,721
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 11 on the consensus side (82%)- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?No $278 · now 93¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?No $106 · now 95¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (45% of 11)
- Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No $36 · now 92¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?No $33 · now 78¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (84% of 19)
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on November 3?No $29 · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 5m?Yes $7 · now 1¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?No $6 · now 22¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $5 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (98% of 48)
Specialties
4,441 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 40¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where smallreceipt's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Weather — held side won 66% of 717 at an average 70¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 59%(won 1% of 2641)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 32% of 88)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 59% of 148)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 96% of 1564)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.