Will the Chiefs win the season series against the Chargers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 61¢ · $285 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$284.75

Combined PnL

-$32.6

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 60.5¢

-9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$197.23

Total Shares326

Combined PnL-$81.83

Yes2 traders

Total Value$87.52

Total Shares222

Combined PnL+$49.24

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Noavg 65.8¢	$203.41	$186.95	-$79.37	64% 1050-593 (1643)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.5¢	$71.22	$79.73	+$43.68	51% 1100-1065 (2165)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 75¢	$12.75	$10.29	-$2.47	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$7.79	$7.79	+$5.55	67% 27455-13809 (41264)

ndb1

Invested

$203.41

Value

$186.95

PnL

-$79.37

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

CosmicCedarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.22

Value

$79.73

PnL

+$43.68

Record

51%

1100-1065 (2165)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$12.75

Value

$10.29

PnL

-$2.47

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.79

Value

$7.79

PnL

+$5.55

Record

67%

27455-13809 (41264)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.