Consensus PnL -$32K · win rate 36% (2955–5298, n=8253) · PM monthly #349 · holds 37 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-31.8K
Record
2955W / 5298L
Win Rate
36.0%
of 8253 settled
Batting Avg
18.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2444
Source
PM monthly #349
Record (90 d)
3014/8305 · 36%
Trades
9,509
Markets
25,436
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
37 in listed consensus markets · 31 of 37 on the consensus side (84%)- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027?No $657 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (44% of 9)
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027?No $292 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?No $133 · now 89¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will Ty Jerome win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?No $125 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (17% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on November 3?No $109 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?No $101 · now 83¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 3?No $90 · now 50¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?No $89 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (50% of 16)
Specialties
6,309 settled consensus markets · held side won 27% at an average entry of 33¢- MLB
+8 pts
side won 83% of 18 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 11% of 4227 at an average 19¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 70%(won 1% of 4397)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 40% of 126)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 55% of 166)
- 70¢ and up: 26%(won 96% of 1620)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.