Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 72% (693–270, n=963) · was PM monthly #361 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.0K
Record
693W / 270L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 963 settled
Batting Avg
17.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#658
Source
PM monthly #361
Trades
644
Markets
1,427
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 11 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $12K · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $5.0K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?Yes $998 · now 59¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Yes $170 · now 100¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will the season series between the Cardinals and 49ers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No $38 · now 77¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $6 · now 2¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Boston Bruins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes $6 · now 3¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No $6 · now 83¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
814 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 74¢- Other Sports
+27 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +6%
- MLB
+11 pts
side won 95% of 79 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +10%
- NFL
+10 pts
side won 98% of 66 · avg entry 88¢
ROI −4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 15% of 172)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 75% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 94% of 36)
- 70¢ and up: 73%(won 99% of 594)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.