Will the Denver Broncos make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 72¢ · $530 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$529.95
-$23.42
74.6¢ → 71.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 82.5¢ | $201.2 | $220.51 | +$14.02 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Noavg 29.8¢ | $178.1 | $170.36 | -$79.47 | 41% 2003-2838 (4841) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Yesavg 58¢ | $82.04 | $119.53 | +$37.48 | 43% 470-622 (1092) |
AN anciano<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $38.29 | $19.55 | +$4.54 | 52% 1169-1072 (2241) |
Invested
$201.2
Value
$220.51
PnL
+$14.02
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$178.1
Value
$170.36
PnL
-$79.47
Record
41%
2003-2838 (4841)
Invested
$82.04
Value
$119.53
PnL
+$37.48
Record
43%
470-622 (1092)
Invested
$38.29
Value
$19.55
PnL
+$4.54
Record
52%
1169-1072 (2241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.