Will the Houston Texans have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 55¢ · $571 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$571
-$124.84
62.7¢ → 54.5¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Noavg 65¢ | $98.35 | $288.85 | -$95.82 | 33% 537-1074 (1611) |
 JustADonk | Noavg 59¢ | $205.25 | $189.75 | -$15.5 | 55% 913-754 (1667) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $63.88 | $69.2 | +$5.32 | 43% 469-622 (1091) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $17.2 | $18.2 | +$1 | 66% 918-479 (1397) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 59.1¢ | $128.98 | $4.99 | -$19.84 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
extractive-manateeInvested
$98.35
Value
$288.85
PnL
-$95.82
Record
33%
537-1074 (1611)
JustADonkInvested
$205.25
Value
$189.75
PnL
-$15.5
Record
55%
913-754 (1667)
Invested
$63.88
Value
$69.2
PnL
+$5.32
Record
43%
469-622 (1091)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$1
Record
66%
918-479 (1397)
Invested
$128.98
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$19.84
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.