Will the Las Vegas Raiders make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $782 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$782.41
$9.12
62.2¢ → 81.5¢
+31% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 62¢ | $510 | $670.4 | +$160.4 | 66% 910-479 (1389) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $238.93 | $92.6 | -$151.09 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $5.92 | $8.51 | +$2.59 | 43% 468-621 (1089) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $8.8 | $6.4 | -$2.4 | 16% 247-1263 (1510) |
 Seutervoinen<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $4.84 | $4.51 | -$0.39 | 85% 313-57 (370) |
Invested
$510
Value
$670.4
PnL
+$160.4
Record
66%
910-479 (1389)
Invested
$238.93
Value
$92.6
PnL
-$151.09
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
Invested
$5.92
Value
$8.51
PnL
+$2.59
Record
43%
468-621 (1089)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$6.4
PnL
-$2.4
Record
16%
247-1263 (1510)
Seutervoinen<$100Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.51
PnL
-$0.39
Record
85%
313-57 (370)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.