Consensus PnL $116K · win rate 86% (327–52, n=379) · was PM monthly #593 · holds 51 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$115.9K
Record
327W / 52L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 379 settled
Batting Avg
63.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#314
Source
PM monthly #593
Trades
147
Markets
468
Volume
$3.7M
Top consensus positions
51 in listed consensus markets · 45 of 51 on the consensus side (88%)- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $39K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $25K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (81% of 47)
- Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?No $22K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $21K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes $14K · now 94¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (72% of 25)
- Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No $4.3K · now 93¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (69% of 29)
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?Yes $3.9K · now 93¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 93¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (71% of 31)
Specialties
358 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 85¢- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 98% of 84 · avg entry 93¢
ROI −1%
- College Football
+6 pts
side won 100% of 29 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +2%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 90% of 50 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 89% of 57 at an average 89¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 3% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 42% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 83% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 87%(won 98% of 310)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.