Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Ottawa Senators record 100+ points?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 48¢ · $267 held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$266.69
$34.92
42.2¢ → 48¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KnureKnumeCTR | Yesavg 50.5¢ | $156.57 | $136.3 | -$4.8 | 48% 404-446 (850) |
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $61.31 | $102.92 | +$41.61 | 52% 6156-5779 (11935) |
AU auros2<$100 | No | $15.5 | $15.5 | +$0.01 | — 6-1 (7) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $11.76 | $9.49 | -$1.9 | 64% 1054-596 (1650) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $2.48 | $2.48 | +$0 | 40% 6564-9846 (16410) |
KnureKnumeCTRInvested
$156.57
Value
$136.3
PnL
-$4.8
Record
48%
404-446 (850)
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$61.31
Value
$102.92
PnL
+$41.61
Record
52%
6156-5779 (11935)
Invested
$15.5
Value
$15.5
PnL
+$0.01
Record
—
6-1 (7)
Invested
$11.76
Value
$9.49
PnL
-$1.9
Record
64%
1054-596 (1650)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$2.48
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
6564-9846 (16410)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.