Consensus PnL $128K · win rate 44% (208–261, n=469) · hand-picked wallet · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$128.4K
Record
208W / 261L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 469 settled
Batting Avg
56.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2016
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
66,631
Markets
984
Volume
$3.5M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 13 on the consensus side (85%)- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $4.1K · now 38¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (78% of 39)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $3.8K · now 21¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $981 · now 10¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (85% of 26)
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $691 · now 2¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 24)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Yes $537 · now 24¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $362 · now 2¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 15)
- Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $120 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $100 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
704 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 32¢- MMA
+24 pts
side won 68% of 95 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +10%
- NHL
+7 pts
side won 45% of 179 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 29% of 211 · avg entry 27¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 18% of 22 at an average 26¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 51%(won 12% of 356)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 51% of 180)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 70% of 130)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 100% of 38)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.