Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 23¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.3K
$96.25
21.9¢ → 23¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BiDiFakePollsCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $641.25 | $641.25 | +$13.94 | 58% 182-132 (314) |
 twinnaCTR | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $365.22 | $453.5 | +$98.16 | 50% 92-93 (185) |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $269.26 | $248 | -$15.87 | 42% 71-100 (171) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.45 | $3.49 | +$0.02 | 67% 4164-2026 (6190) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.