Consensus PnL $20K · win rate 59% (74–52, n=126) · PM monthly #712 · holds 31 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.8K
Record
74W / 52L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 126 settled
Batting Avg
20.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1248
Source
PM monthly #712
Trades
108
Markets
185
Volume
$431.3K
Top consensus positions
31 in listed consensus markets · 18 of 31 on the consensus side (58%)- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $10K · now 53¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No $9.4K · now 81¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (62% of 37)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $7.3K · now 73¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $7.1K · now 70¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Yes $4.4K · now 73¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $4.1K · now 28¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (69% of 31)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes $3.8K · now 76¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $3.8K · now 79¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (69% of 30)
Specialties
106 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 57¢- Weather
+4 pts
side won 57% of 30 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +13%
- Tech
+12 pts
side won 80% of 10 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 17% of 29)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 45% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 44% of 18)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 98% of 48)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.