Consensus PnL $1.4M · win rate 68% (2273–1077, n=3350) · PM monthly #886 · holds 157 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.4M
Record
2273W / 1077L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 3350 settled
Batting Avg
58.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#805
Source
PM monthly #886 + pinned
Trades
315,638
Markets
6,734
Volume
$86.5M
Top consensus positions
157 in listed consensus markets · 105 of 157 on the consensus side (67%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $490K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $54K · now 84¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?No $19K · now 77¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (38% of 8)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $19K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $9.9K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?No $8.7K · now 78¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (50% of 5)
- Israeli Knesset election annulled?No $8.1K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $7.6K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
Specialties
4,258 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 61¢- Politics
+5 pts
side won 76% of 775 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +1%
- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 67% of 486 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +3%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 60% of 554 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 62% of 138 at an average 62¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 7% of 1264)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 46% of 325)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 67% of 371)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 97% of 2298)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.