Consensus PnL $72K · win rate 50% (96–96, n=192) · PM monthly #406 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$71.5K
Record
96W / 96L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 192 settled
Batting Avg
54.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1767
Source
PM monthly #406
Trades
142
Markets
256
Volume
$356.9K
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 21 on the consensus side (76%)- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $18K · now 71¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?No $7.6K · now 70¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (54% of 24)
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Yes $7.4K · now 71¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (73% of 23)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.5K · now 74¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (69% of 45)
- Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?Yes $4.9K · now 65¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $4.7K · now 68¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (52% of 58)
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?No $2.7K · now 78¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?Yes $2.7K · now 79¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
Specialties
207 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 47¢- Mentions
+40 pts
side won 79% of 14 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +60%
- Elections
+10 pts
side won 59% of 64 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+14 pts
side won 40% of 10 · avg entry 26¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 44% of 103 at an average 50¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 15% of 39)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 48% of 79)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 61% of 64)
- 70¢ and up: 12%(won 88% of 25)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.