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Consensus PnL $127K · win rate 62% (191–115, n=306) · PM monthly #249 · holds 42 consensus positions
0xd24b9555...2abdef76Polymarket
@River_Whales🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$126.9K
Record
191W / 115L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 306 settled
Batting Avg
41.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1074
Source
PM monthly #249
Trades
262
Markets
415
Volume
$918.7K
Top consensus positions
42 in listed consensus markets · 35 of 42 on the consensus side (83%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $26K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $26K · now 71¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $20K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 79¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (69% of 30)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $8.8K · now 81¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (69% of 39)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $6.9K · now 75¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (58% of 38)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes $6.8K · now 74¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (69% of 45)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $6.4K · now 59¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
226 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 66¢- Elections
+20 pts
side won 85% of 220 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +15%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 48% of 25)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 57% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 89% of 47)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 98% of 124)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.