Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 75¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 4

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$322.54

Combined PnL

$31.98

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$248.09

Total Shares333

Combined PnL+$6.44

Yes3 traders

Total Value$74.45

Total Shares292

Combined PnL+$25.54

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 76¢	$100.32	$248.09	+$6.44	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$36.42	$38.04	+$1.62	50% 969-986 (1955)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$11.43	$34.99	+$23.55	40% 174-265 (439)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.06	$1.43	+$0.36	70% 3189-1369 (4558)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$100.32

Value

$248.09

PnL

+$6.44

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.42

Value

$38.04

PnL

+$1.62

Record

50%

969-986 (1955)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.43

Value

$34.99

PnL

+$23.55

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.36

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.