Consensus PnL $124K · win rate 71% (3048–1272, n=4320) · was PM monthly #932 · holds 78 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$123.9K
Record
3048W / 1272L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 4320 settled
Batting Avg
44.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#681
Source
PM monthly #932
Trades
4,566
Markets
5,053
Volume
$31.6M
Top consensus positions
78 in listed consensus markets · 44 of 78 on the consensus side (56%)- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $37K · now 89¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 46.5Under $5.1K · now 50¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Over)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $4.2K · now 99¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?Yes $2.8K · now 86¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?No $2.4K · now 56¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?Yes $2.3K · now 83¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?No $2.0K · now 69¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $2.0K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
Specialties
3,986 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 72¢- Esports
+37 pts
side won 89% of 18 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +16%
- Tennis
+11 pts
side won 74% of 649 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +12%
- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 84% of 2758 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 56% of 73 at an average 61¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 18% of 452)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 50% of 294)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 68% of 683)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 95% of 2557)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.