Consensus PnL $102K · win rate 44% (550–710, n=1260) · was PM monthly #976 · holds 45 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$102.0K
Record
550W / 710L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 1260 settled
Batting Avg
66.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2008
Source
PM monthly #976 + pinned
Trades
19,515
Markets
2,086
Volume
$945.0K
Top consensus positions
45 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 45 on the consensus side (44%)- Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?No $3.8K · now 94¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.9K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $2.5K · now 95¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.4K · now 14¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Yes $1.9K · now 24¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $1.7K · now 84¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $1.1K · now 74¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (53% of 31)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Yes $1.1K · now 37¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,256 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 35¢- Mentions
+8 pts
side won 48% of 169 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +14%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 57% of 212 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +8%
- Tech
+6 pts
side won 40% of 55 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 28% of 377 at an average 29¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 56%(won 7% of 707)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 38% of 125)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 69% of 127)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 94% of 297)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.