Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 10%-15%?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 76¢ · $513 held · ends Nov 4

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$512.5

Combined PnL

$55.14

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$343.52

Total Shares452

Combined PnL+$9.02

Yes3 traders

Total Value$168.98

Total Shares704

Combined PnL+$46.12

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 71¢	$200.22	$343.52	+$9.02	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$76.84	$89.66	+$16.56	— 7-2 (9)
fkpaCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$45.94	$75.72	+$29.78	— 1-0 (1)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$4.05	$3.6	-$0.23	40% 704-1061 (1765)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$200.22

Value

$343.52

PnL

+$9.02

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.84

Value

$89.66

PnL

+$16.56

Record

—

7-2 (9)

fkpaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.94

Value

$75.72

PnL

+$29.78

Record

—

1-0 (1)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.23

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.7%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.