Consensus PnL $124K · win rate 36% (364–646, n=1010) · was PM monthly #932 · holds 81 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$124.2K
Record
364W / 646L
Win Rate
36.0%
of 1010 settled
Batting Avg
57.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2145
Source
PM monthly #932 + pinned
Trades
61,657
Markets
2,181
Volume
$3.8M
Top consensus positions
81 in listed consensus markets · 45 of 81 on the consensus side (56%)- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $15K · now 20¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 26¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $10K · now 53¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $7.7K · now 4¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (95% of 22)
- Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $7.2K · now 7¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $7.1K · now 70¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?Yes $6.0K · now 60¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $5.8K · now 12¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,941 settled consensus markets · held side won 34% at an average entry of 33¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 30% of 462 · avg entry 25¢
ROI +2%
- Mentions
+10 pts
side won 49% of 51 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +13%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 30% of 128 · avg entry 27¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 21% of 57 at an average 40¢ entry (−19 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 49%(won 12% of 944)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 42% of 456)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 58% of 378)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 84% of 163)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.