Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 30%-35%?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$670.59

Smart Money Entry

26.5¢ → 62.7¢

+137% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,196

Combined PnL+$652.55

No2 traders

Total Value$250.9

Total Shares673

Combined PnL+$18.04

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 27.4¢	$552.3	$1.1K	+$578.49	61% 203-132 (335)
SH shiifooCTR	Noavg 39.4¢	$178.44	$213.36	+$34.92	59% 3428-2336 (5764)
fkpa	Yesavg 16.5¢	$37.45	$111.51	+$74.06	— 1-0 (1)
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$59.16	$37.55	-$16.88	50% 1093-1094 (2187)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$552.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$578.49

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

shiifooCTR

Invested

$178.44

Value

$213.36

PnL

+$34.92

Record

59%

3428-2336 (5764)

fkpa

Yes

Invested

$37.45

Value

$111.51

PnL

+$74.06

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Albert 1953CTR<$100

Invested

$59.16

Value

$37.55

PnL

-$16.88

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.6%

62.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.