Consensus PnL $168K · win rate 50% (488–489, n=977) · hand-picked wallet · holds 46 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$168.0K
Record
488W / 489L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 977 settled
Batting Avg
59.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1743
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
53,067
Markets
2,096
Volume
$5.1M
Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 24 of 46 on the consensus side (52%)- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $4.5K · now 45¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $4.0K · now 44¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $3.7K · now 92¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.9K · now 12¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No $2.4K · now 61¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 18¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 3%-6%?No $1.9K · now 75¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (20% of 6)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.4K · now 82¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,084 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 48¢- Finance
+27 pts
side won 91% of 331 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +31%
- Economy
+22 pts
side won 73% of 37 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +14%
- Crypto
+10 pts
side won 53% of 247 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 26% of 134 at an average 30¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 37%(won 17% of 402)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 63% of 154)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 80% of 158)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 96% of 370)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.