Consensus PnL $371K · win rate 65% (203–109, n=312) · PM monthly #187 · holds 59 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$370.9K
Record
203W / 109L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 312 settled
Batting Avg
61.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#933
Source
PM monthly #187
Trades
954
Markets
476
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
59 in listed consensus markets · 45 of 59 on the consensus side (76%)- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $24K · now 52¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $20K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $18K · now 68¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $18K · now 44¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?Yes $16K · now 86¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?No $16K · now 97¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $14K · now 70¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?No $13K · now 85¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (44% of 18)
Specialties
371 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 55¢- Elections
+7 pts
side won 61% of 323 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +13%
- Other Sports
+10 pts
side won 76% of 34 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 19% of 104)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 43% of 63)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 76% of 46)
- 70¢ and up: 43%(won 94% of 158)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.