Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$7.3K
$165.96
69.2¢ → 58.5¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $4.5K | $3.8K | -$762.94 | 47% 474-534 (1008) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR | Noavg 29¢ | $2.2K | $3.1K | +$932.22 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 59¢ | $295 | $421.2 | -$3.2 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $2.93 | -$0.13 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
Invested
$4,544.93
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$762.94
Record
47%
474-534 (1008)
Invested
$2,165.74
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$932.22
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$295
Value
$421.2
PnL
-$3.2
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$2.93
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.