Consensus PnL $1.3M · win rate 50% (290–293, n=583) · PM monthly #18 · holds 91 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.3M
Record
290W / 293L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 583 settled
Batting Avg
58.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1749
Source
PM monthly #18
Trades
10,414
Markets
1,285
Volume
$29.0M
Top consensus positions
91 in listed consensus markets · 54 of 91 on the consensus side (59%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $273K · now 99¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $76K · now 56¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $47K · now 56¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (59% of 34)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $39K · now 89¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $36K · now 78¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (70% of 37)
- Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?No $33K · now 90¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No $33K · now 83¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?No $29K · now 89¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (50% of 9)
Specialties
479 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 80¢- Elections
+35 pts
side won 96% of 81 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +37%
- Economy
+24 pts
side won 93% of 15 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +16%
- Tech
+7 pts
side won 100% of 52 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 63% of 40)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 83% of 23)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 76% of 49)
- 70¢ and up: 77%(won 98% of 367)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.