Consensus PnL $76K · win rate 48% (2151–2334, n=4485) · PM monthly #405 · holds 129 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$75.9K
Record
2151W / 2334L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 4485 settled
Batting Avg
56.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1874
Source
PM monthly #405
Trades
17,210
Markets
5,779
Volume
$3.9M
Top consensus positions
129 in listed consensus markets · 36 of 129 on the consensus side (28%)- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $73K · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (40% of 36)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $28K · now 63¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $28K · now 65¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $22K · now 94¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (42% of 31)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $14K · now 28¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?No $8.7K · now 92¢ · in at 94¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No $6.6K · now 89¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (65% of 17)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $5.4K · now 23¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
3,052 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 58¢- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 74% of 1108 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +1%
- NBA
+10 pts
side won 72% of 68 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +19%
- MLB
+2 pts
side won 60% of 443 · avg entry 57¢
ROI −2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 39%(won 5% of 1186)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 61% of 23)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 53% of 15)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 98% of 1828)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.