Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$263.67

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 94.6¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,955

Combined PnL+$263.87

No2 traders

Total Value$1.88

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$0.21

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 88.3¢	$3.3K	$3.6K	+$237.35	61% 203-132 (335)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 79¢	$134.3	$160.82	+$26.52	94% 442-28 (470)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 7.4¢	$1.34	$1.17	-$0.16	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 6.1¢	$0.79	$0.7	-$0.05	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$3,342.82

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$237.35

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$134.3

Value

$160.82

PnL

+$26.52

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.16

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.