Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 94% (387–23, n=410) · hand-picked wallet · holds 50 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.3K
Record
387W / 23L
Win Rate
94.0%
of 410 settled
Batting Avg
89.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#168
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
7,067
Markets
567
Volume
$711.6K
Top consensus positions
50 in listed consensus markets · 43 of 50 on the consensus side (86%)- US military draft authorized in 2026?No $10K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No $3.6K · now 91¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (44% of 18)
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?No $3.5K · now 92¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (91% of 22)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No $2.7K · now 75¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (41% of 39)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No $2.1K · now 89¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (61% of 18)
- Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?Yes $1.7K · now 85¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (45% of 12)
- Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?No $1.5K · now 84¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (46% of 13)
- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.5K · now 89¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (57% of 28)
Specialties
439 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 92¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 93% of 96 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 98% of 63 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +2%
- NFL
+9 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 93% of 184 at an average 94¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 71% of 17)
- 70¢ and up: 95%(won 97% of 416)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.