Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.3K
-$59.38
67¢ → 63¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 62¢ | $564.04 | $564.04 | +$4.55 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
SI singularityman | Yesavg 75¢ | $432.75 | $357.74 | -$72.13 | 42% 138-193 (331) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $212.95 | $188.78 | -$24.18 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR | Noavg 29.8¢ | $125.57 | $155.83 | +$32.37 | 47% 4649-5169 (9818) |
Invested
$564.04
Value
$564.04
PnL
+$4.55
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$432.75
Value
$357.74
PnL
-$72.13
Record
42%
138-193 (331)
Invested
$212.95
Value
$188.78
PnL
-$24.18
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$125.57
Value
$155.83
PnL
+$32.37
Record
47%
4649-5169 (9818)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.