Consensus PnL $78K · win rate 54% (123–104, n=227) · PM monthly #969 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$78.2K
Record
123W / 104L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 227 settled
Batting Avg
59.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1522
Source
PM monthly #969
Trades
1,099
Markets
430
Volume
$291.9K
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 22 on the consensus side (45%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $17K · now 89¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $1.7K · now 59¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (44% of 16)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes $1.7K · now 90¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?No $1.3K · now 85¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?No $955 · now 96¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No $617 · now 92¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Yes $484 · now 16¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes $339 · now 14¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
247 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 53¢- Entertainment
+40 pts
side won 90% of 20 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +38%
- Elections
+26 pts
side won 85% of 47 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +12%
- Mentions
+29 pts
side won 92% of 13 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +24%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 45% of 67)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 73% of 41)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 81% of 47)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 97% of 92)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.