Consensus PnL $989K · win rate 62% (663–404, n=1067) · PM monthly #567 · holds 37 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$988.9K
Record
663W / 404L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 1067 settled
Batting Avg
23.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1064
Source
PM monthly #567
Trades
5,298
Markets
1,368
Volume
$15.5M
Top consensus positions
37 in listed consensus markets · 29 of 37 on the consensus side (78%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $36K · now 72¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $25K · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes $23K · now 74¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (69% of 45)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $21K · now 81¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (69% of 39)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $18K · now 53¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $14K · now 59¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (44% of 16)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $9.8K · now 78¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (52% of 33)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $7.6K · now 68¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (43% of 42)
Specialties
938 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 62¢- Soccer
+25 pts
side won 86% of 198 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +17%
- Elections
+19 pts
side won 82% of 291 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +17%
- Crypto
+22 pts
side won 85% of 34 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 17% of 78)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 58% of 119)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 83% of 367)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 97% of 374)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.