Consensus PnL $4.8K · win rate 46% (3422–4096, n=7518) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.8K
Record
3422W / 4096L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 7518 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1939
Source
PM monthly #997
Trades
472
Markets
9,951
Volume
$597.6K
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 9 on the consensus side (44%)- Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?Yes $396 · now 37¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $61 · now 11¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?Yes $48 · now 99¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $42 · now 4¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?Yes $37 · now 12¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?No $29 · now 13¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?Yes $28 · now 93¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?Yes $6 · now 27¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (44% of 9)
Specialties
1,952 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 65¢- College Football
+43 pts
side won 100% of 60 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +43%
- NBA
+54 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +50%
- Soccer
+33 pts
side won 98% of 1628 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +31%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 86% of 163)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 96% of 304)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 99% of 519)
- 70¢ and up: 49%(won 100% of 966)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.