Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$2.0K
-$30.87
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 94¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$10 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
PA pantomimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $83.52 | $67.86 | -$15.66 | 52% 1287-1198 (2485) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $20.97 | $22.42 | +$1.45 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $19.99 | $14.44 | -$6.66 | 58% 5897-4320 (10217) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,880
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$10
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$83.52
Value
$67.86
PnL
-$15.66
Record
52%
1287-1198 (2485)
Invested
$20.97
Value
$22.42
PnL
+$1.45
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$14.44
PnL
-$6.66
Record
58%
5897-4320 (10217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.