Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 59% (5718–4030, n=9748) · PM monthly #356 · holds 82 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.0K
Record
5718W / 4030L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 9748 settled
Batting Avg
38.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1201
Source
PM monthly #356
Trades
822
Markets
10,818
Volume
$736.0K
Top consensus positions
82 in listed consensus markets · 52 of 82 on the consensus side (63%)- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $163 · now 75¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (53% of 15)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $121 · now 99¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (68% of 68)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Spirit $121 · now 43¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Team Yandex)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ETDown $111 · now 55¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (60% of 36)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?No $102 · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (35% of 20)
- Will Alexander Zverev be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP RankingsYes $100 · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5Under $98 · now 57¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Burgos CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5Under $71 · now 50¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (40% of 6)
Specialties
2,143 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 62¢- Crypto
+43 pts
side won 100% of 298 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +51%
- Tennis
+37 pts
side won 100% of 422 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +39%
- Esports
+34 pts
side won 98% of 1153 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 91% of 135)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 97% of 455)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 98% of 742)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 100% of 811)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.