Consensus PnL $261K · win rate 55% (850–683, n=1533) · PM monthly #481 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$260.6K
Record
850W / 683L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 1533 settled
Batting Avg
55.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1446
Source
PM monthly #481 + pinned
Trades
40,520
Markets
2,748
Volume
$11.0M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 11 on the consensus side (45%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $2.3K · now 66¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes $1.8K · now 36¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (71% of 28)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No $1.3K · now 32¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $883 · now 33¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (77% of 39)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $771 · now 75¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?No $356 · now 11¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $155 · now 78¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (66% of 30)
- Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Yes $63 · now 7¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,700 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 48¢- Mentions
+11 pts
side won 82% of 154 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 65% of 193 · avg entry 60¢
ROI −2%
- Crypto
+8 pts
side won 72% of 50 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 38% of 111 at an average 41¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 43%(won 10% of 729)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 46% of 183)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 65% of 175)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 97% of 613)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.