Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.5K
$39.59
97.1¢ → 99.1¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 96.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$43.39 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 98¢ | $600 | $594.3 | +$6.3 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $17.74 | $8.67 | -$10.25 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $4.81 | $4.95 | +$0.15 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
probabilityInvested
$1,871.16
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$43.39
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
elmcap2Invested
$600
Value
$594.3
PnL
+$6.3
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
Invested
$17.74
Value
$8.67
PnL
-$10.25
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$4.81
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.