Consensus PnL $2.3M · win rate 88% (1222–161, n=1383) · PM monthly #87 · holds 72 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.3M
Record
1222W / 161L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 1383 settled
Batting Avg
54.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#265
Source
PM monthly #87 + pinned
Trades
101,053
Markets
2,023
Volume
$291.7M
Top consensus positions
72 in listed consensus markets · 71 of 72 on the consensus side (99%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $2.0M · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $945K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $454K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $380K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $362K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $256K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $210K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $194K · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
Specialties
1,880 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 90¢- Other Sports
+11 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +5%
- College Football
+6 pts
side won 75% of 12 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 96% of 247 at an average 98¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 11)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 33% of 81)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 61% of 179)
- 70¢ and up: 86%(won 97% of 1609)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.