Will the San Francisco 49ers have more than 12.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 50¢ · $688 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$688.36
$214.05
39.6¢ → 50¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $78.58 | $641.11 | +$212.73 | 33% 537-1072 (1609) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 51.1¢ | $433.82 | $32.39 | -$1.42 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $6.8 | $10.2 | +$3.4 | 43% 469-622 (1091) |
 JustADonk<$100 | Yesavg 51.6¢ | $5.32 | $4.66 | -$0.65 | 55% 913-754 (1667) |
extractive-manateeInvested
$78.58
Value
$641.11
PnL
+$212.73
Record
33%
537-1072 (1609)
Invested
$433.82
Value
$32.39
PnL
-$1.42
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$3.4
Record
43%
469-622 (1091)
JustADonk<$100Invested
$5.32
Value
$4.66
PnL
-$0.65
Record
55%
913-754 (1667)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.