Consensus PnL $809 · win rate 58% (124–90, n=214) · was PM monthly #948 · holds 84 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$808.98
Record
124W / 90L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 214 settled
Batting Avg
48.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1303
Source
PM monthly #948
Trades
303
Markets
840
Volume
$325.5K
Top consensus positions
84 in listed consensus markets · 44 of 84 on the consensus side (52%)- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $697 · now 76¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (74% of 39)
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $207 · now 25¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $155 · now 89¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (57% of 55)
- Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?Yes $111 · now 96¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?Yes $95 · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes $90 · now 70¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Yes $89 · now 94¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Yes $80 · now 100¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
Specialties
104 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 73¢- Weather
+4 pts
side won 83% of 47 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +4%
- Tech
+18 pts
side won 77% of 13 · avg entry 59¢
ROI −12%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 27% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 50% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 85% of 13)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 97% of 70)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.