Consensus PnL $57K · win rate 26% (609–1728, n=2337) · was PM monthly #541 · holds 84 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.6K
Record
609W / 1728L
Win Rate
26.0%
of 2337 settled
Batting Avg
57.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2225
Source
PM monthly #541 + pinned
Trades
60,685
Markets
5,276
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
84 in listed consensus markets · 42 of 84 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $9.1K · now 66¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No $4.9K · now 81¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (63% of 38)
- Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?No $2.8K · now 99¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (37% of 27)
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No $2.7K · now 91¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (69% of 16)
- Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Yes $2.3K · now 31¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No $2.2K · now 90¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No $1.6K · now 94¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes $1.5K · now 12¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,351 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 35¢- Economy
+24 pts
side won 56% of 45 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +11%
- Elections
+17 pts
side won 53% of 144 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +16%
- Tech
+18 pts
side won 51% of 98 · avg entry 33¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 19% of 16 at an average 23¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 57%(won 18% of 769)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 66% of 157)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 85% of 151)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 97% of 274)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.