Will the Washington Commanders make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$6.3K
$830.48
68.9¢ → 79.5¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.4K | $4.1K | +$504.71 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
AN anciano | No | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$181.44 | 54% 1415-1224 (2639) |
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 68.1¢ | $554.27 | $633.13 | +$137.59 | 41% 2124-3048 (5172) |
 extractive-manatee<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $71.42 | $27.79 | +$6.82 | 34% 660-1265 (1925) |
AU auros2<$100 | No | $13.16 | $13.16 | -$0.08 | — 4-0 (4) |
Invested
$3,449.99
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$504.71
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$1,532.05
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$181.44
Record
54%
1415-1224 (2639)
TimeTravelerInvested
$554.27
Value
$633.13
PnL
+$137.59
Record
41%
2124-3048 (5172)
extractive-manatee<$100Invested
$71.42
Value
$27.79
PnL
+$6.82
Record
34%
660-1265 (1925)
Invested
$13.16
Value
$13.16
PnL
-$0.08
Record
—
4-0 (4)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.